The goal is simple. I want to say:

1. Here are the strongest thematics over the past year, and here are the best/most actionable setups within those thematics (RS Composite).

2. Here are the strongest thematics over the past 1-3 months; maybe they’ll become the next Relative Strength leaders, and here are the best setups within those thematics (RS Inflection).

We’re obsessed with stacking edges at Macro Ops. Specifically, we focus on three primary edges: Technical, Macro/Fundamental, and Sentiment. This is the bedrock of our Trifecta Lens Trading Philosophy.

The trades that show technical confirmation, fundamental conviction, and asymmetric sentiment tend to be the trades that make our year.

Here’s how the RS Inflection Report helps us find these trades.

The report identifies two of our three edges: technical and sentiment. With one report, we filter the market to the industries and thematics that are outperforming their peers (inflecting higher and showing relative strength leadership) and breaking out of long-term bases in sectors and corners the market has either forgotten or left for dead.

Last summer, the RS Inflection alerted us to solar stocks when nobody wanted to touch solar or renewable energy. It allowed us to build a basket in the relative strength leaders in a left-for-dead (but inflecting) thematic and bag a few profitable trades.

Then, in September, the report flagged lithium as the next potential commodity to move. Lithium ETF $LIT is up 40%+ since then.

Again, it’s about stacking edges … finding setups where technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment align to give us a profitable, repeatable pattern for making money in markets.

We share these reports and individual stocks within our Thematic Leaders each month in our Macro Ops Collective.

If you’re interested in joining and learning more about our Trifecta Lens Process, click the link below.

Just a heads up, we’re raising prices soon. Not as a gimmick. We’re keeping the community at a size where it actually works, not to mention a few new tools, products, and in-person events that get us pumped. If you’ve been on the fence, it’s time to jump!

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Alright, now onto this month’s RS Inflection Report.

Two weeks ago, I described my relationship with AI tools, the dark path I found myself on, and actionable steps I could take to get the most out of them without offloading the critical-thinking part of my job.

Improving our Trifecta Lens Pulse Reports is a perfect use case for Claude/AI tools, and I’m excited to share the results with you.

Top Five RS Inflection Leaders Heading Into March

Here are the top five Thematic Leaders as of 02.28.2026:

1. Global Shipping (BOAT)

2. Oil Services (OIH)

3. Silver Junior Miners (SILJ)

4. Energy Producers/Explorers (XLE/XOP)

5. Gold Miners (GDX)

You can see the full top-ten list below.

The only thing that matters on this list is oil. Oil has inflected sharply over the last two months and is finally flashing the technicals “green light” in our Trifecta Lens Criteria. Funny enough, all that inflecting happened before any of the Iran war news … maybe price is king?

Speaking of price is king, I can’t believe I missed this BOAT trade. Look at the weekly chart below.

That’s as clean a setup as you could ask for … breaking out from an inverse H&S to new ATHs on a strong weekly bar. The market never stops throwing me “don’t overcomplicate this game” reminders.

Anyways, here’s our current portfolio positioning relative to our thematics (rounded):

• Metals & Mining: 22%

• Oil & Gas: 36%

• Aerospace & Defense: 11%

• Other: 19%

We own the stuff that’s working and inflecting, but I want more oil exposure going forward (I’m thinking 50%+ notional). Check out some of these oil thematic monthly charts.

Here’s OIH.

It’s breaking out of a 7-year ascending triangle bottoming pattern. Then there’s XOP (see below).

It’s forming an 11YR inverse H&S reversal pattern (with a four-ish-year rectangle-launching pattern). Again, we don’t need to overcomplicate things. Buy inflections with charts that look like XOP and OIH.

Now, about the Claude-assisted RS Inflection Analysis. Let’s explore “under the hood” with our RS Inflection Thematics.

Under The Hood: RS Inflection Screener Analysis

One of the improvements I made in December was adding RS Inflection & Composite Screener Analysis. Now, powered by Claude.

Here’s how it works.

I screen for stocks based on the same RS Inflection and Composite criteria as above. The result is a detailed breakdown of which industries, sectors, and stocks meet that criteria, and most importantly, the changing distribution of industries, sectors, and thematics over time (MoM).

Warning, this will get “data-heavy” real quick. If you’re a data nerd, you’ll love this. If you’re a visual, chart-based Operator, don’t worry, I’ll get you later.

Sector Distribution & MoM Change

Consumer Staples gained the most share (+2.7%), followed by Energy (+2.4%) and Industrials (+1.0pp). Communication Services (-2.4%) and Financials (-2.0%) saw the largest declines. Materials held steady as the largest sector at ~17%.

Remember, it’s all about energy.

February 2026 Top Industry Rankings

A few notes from this ranking:

1. Oil & Gas Consumables gained twelve spots from January and ranked fourth in February’s Top 10 (was 16th).

2. Machinery stocks climbed eleven spots to sixth on this month’s list (was 17th).

3. Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment stocks doubled their share in February, jumping 13 spots from 21st to 8th.

Software, Specialty Retail, and Construction & Engineering exited the Top 10 in February.

Industry Share Movers (% of Screened Results)

We can also view the biggest industry movers as a percentage of their share of the screener results (see below).

Oil and gas, machinery, and semiconductors showed the strongest MoM share growth, with oil and gas doubling its share from January.

Relative Strength Profile: Detecting Inflection Levels

Another interesting analysis exercise is determining the “Inflection Strength” of each thematic or industry. We can find this by measuring the spread between long-term relative strength (1YR) and short-term relative strength (1M/3M). The larger the spread, the stronger the inflection.

Here are February’s results.

This is the RS Inflection Report in one picture: show me the industries/thematics that have the strongest inflections over the prior month.

Also, the spread doesn’t discriminate against past success. Oil and Gas has a 70 1YR RS score, that’s great. But it still shows up in the top three because its 3M RS score is so high (93). It reminds me of what Druckenmiller always says about conviction (and I’m paraphrasing):

“Sometimes conviction means that the opportunity set is actually a lot bigger (and more profitable) than consensus. So even though I may be with the crowd, I can have conviction that the future will look even better than what everyone else thinks.”

From Data Gathering To Idea Generation

All of this data is nice, but it’s worthless if we don’t turn it into an actionable pipeline for idea generation.

I know I just gave you a lot of information, so here’s how I would use this report to plan your monthly investment research:

1. Focus most of your time on the thematics/industries that frequently appear in the top three inflection rankings (Oil and Gas, Metals and Miners, and Machinery stocks this month).

2. After that, spend the rest of your time on the Strongest Inflection thematic/industry (i.e., the one with the highest spread). This could be the next RS Composite leader. This month, that’s Health Care Equipment and Supplies.

3. Download the RS Inflection Watchlist (here) and use Koyfin’s Lots of Charts function to find the best-looking charts (long-term bases, deep pullbacks finding support, potential breakouts, etc.).

Let’s head to the charts to find this month’s setups.

Oil & Gas/Services: This Month’s Big Thematic

Oil and gas is our biggest thematic focus this month. As such, we’re spending most of the month looking for Trifecta Lens setups to add to our portfolio (and get O&G weighting to 50%+).

Here are a few ideas that warrant further attention.

Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TSX)

TOU is Canada’s largest natural gas producer operating from three main areas: Alberta Deep Basin, NEBC Montney, and Peace River. The stock trades at 7x NTM EBITDA with a 5% dividend yield. There are two things I love about this setup:

1. TOU’s monthly chart

2. Natural Gas chart

Check out TOU’s monthly chart below.

The stock is compressing within a four-year ascending triangle (hugging the 50D). But check out natural gas futures, too (see below).

Natural gas is bouncing off 1YR+ support around $3. TOU reports earnings in a week. We’ll see if we get an entry bar post-earnings to go long.

Diversified Energy Company (DEC.NYSE)

DEC is a $1B market cap company that produces, transports, and markets primarily natural gas and natural gas liquids from existing assets in the U.S. Appalachian and Central regions.

It’s one of the cheapest companies in the Energy space, trading at ~1x TBV and 4x LTM FCF.

The stock trades in the middle of a ~2YR rectangle base with increasingly compressed volatility (see below).

Parkmead Group (PMG.LSE)

PMG is for those who love London-based, left-for-dead, micro-cap companies (does that person actually exist?).

The company trades for a $33M market cap with $16M in net cash (50% of MC) and no debt. Historically, the company had a mix of exploration, development, and renewables assets in the UK and the Netherlands.

At today’s price, you’re getting the operating company for $16M in cash and 0.9x book value. Who knows how much book value is actually worth? But the stock is bouncing around support as energy/natural gas enters an upcycle.

Healthcare: Strongest MoM Inflection

Healthcare is eighth in our RS Inflection Sector Ranking and had the strongest inflection within its sub-industry (Equipment and Supplies).

This is another reason I love the RS Inflection Report. I haven’t touched healthcare this year. The only connection I have with healthcare stocks is hearing Druckenmiller call healthcare and biotech “the best use case out there of AI.”

I don’t know … if it’s good enough for Druck, it’s good enough for me. Here are a few interesting names in the healthcare/biotech thematic.

Legend Biotech Corporation (LEGN)

LEGN is a $3.4B market-cap company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes novel cell therapies, primarily for oncology. According to Koyfin, its lead product candidate is ciltacabtagene autoleucel (cilta-cel), a chimeric antigen receptor (CAR-T) therapy for the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM).

The company also has a portfolio of earlier-stage autologous CAR-T product candidates targeting various cancers, including Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL), acute lymphoblastic leukemia, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, small cell lung cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer.

The stock is down ~50% since its 2021 IPO. Bombed-out biotech trading near its lows, what’s to like? A lot, actually.

LEGN trades at the cheapest level in its 10-year history at 2.5x NTM Sales and 54x earnings (at least it has earnings!).

Now look under the hood. Since 2021, LEGN has grown revenue from $69M to $909M, increased gross profit from -$245M to +$133M, and reduced net losses from ~$400M to $240M.

Everything about the business has improved except the share price (see below).

The company reports earnings in six days. I have an alert set for a breakout above its January 2026 highs, signaling a mean-reversion long setup.

OrthoPediatrics Corp (KIDS)

Going back to Druck’s comments on AI-winners within healthcare/biotech, I wonder if orthopediatrics would fall into that category. My high-level thesis is that AI will enable better, cheaper, and more anatomically aligned prosthetics and deformity correction products (KIDS’s core market).

Additionally, there could be an element of “brand trust” within this orthopedic segment. Take bike helmets, for example. Does everyone wear MIPS helmets because they’re the best product on the market? Probably. But could the reason also be simply that everyone else wears MIPS helmets?

I wrote about MIPS’s economic moat here.

Who knows. Maybe parents feel more comfortable with a “KIDS-specific prosthetic or deformity device” than other products.

That said, the company appears to be inflecting as it bounces off all-time lows. Here’s a snippet from the latest earnings report.

The business is inflecting positively, while the stock remains at all-time lows and is at its most fundamentally cheap. KIDS trades at 2x NTM EV/Sales and 3x gross profits. This is the same company that grew revenue by 15% YoY while generating positive FCF for the first time in the company’s history.

Since its inception, KIDS has traded at an average EV/Sales of ~6x. The stock is a double if it trades within a 1std range around 3.5x current sales.

Check out the monthly chart.

This is a stock that’s been left for dead at the exact moment its fundamentals are inflecting higher … not to mention the potential AI benefits along the way. You have a clear R/R setup to buy above this consolidation, with a stop below the all-time lows.

That’s all for this week.

If you’re interested in joining and learning more about our Trifecta Lens Process, click the link below.

Again, we’re raising prices soon. Not as a gimmick. We’re keeping the community at a size where it actually works, not to mention a few new tools, products, and in-person events that get us pumped. If you’ve been on the fence, it’s time to jump!

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“It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority” – Sir John Templeton

This will be a quick Long Pull as I’m prepping for tomorrow’s MOHO Idea Lunch with @Tobias. As usual, we will record the webinar, so don’t worry if you can’t make it.

We’re doing podcast notes, people! I know, I’m finally doing it this year after three years of Alex asking why I never did them. Better late than never.

Oh, before we dive into the Podcast Notes, I want to let you know that we’re still accepting Collective member sign-ups.

The MO port finished 2025 up +50.8% and is currently up 28%+ ytd in 26’.

If you’d like to join the Collective, our premier service that offers discussions on high-level theory and performance, differentiated research, real-time trade alerts, portfolio tracking, and a global community of serious traders/investors dedicated to mastery, then click below and sign up.

We look forward to seeing you in our Slack!

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Podcast Notes: Tim Call – Capital Management Corporation

Last week, I interviewed Tim Call of Capital Management Corporation. Tim is a stereotypical value investor.

He focuses on “growing cash cows” through analyzing operating and free cash flow. He invests in niche leaders that exhibit growing free cash flow and increasing GAAP earnings (Tim emphasized GAAP earnings on the podcast, which I deduced as a disdain for things like SBC, etc.).

The “niche leader” part is important because you don’t always think of small caps as “niche leaders.” Leaders should be multi-billion-dollar businesses in large industries. It reminds me of the book Hidden Champions, which profiled a bunch of companies that stayed small to dominate their little niche.

Which company would be the value trap? An “optically cheap” small-cap company fighting for its life in a large industry? Or an equally cheap small-cap company dominating its small corner of a small industry?

We can distill Tim’s investment framework into four main criteria:

1. Small- to mid-sized company ($80M to $10B, according to Tim).

2. Generating positive free cash flow with a history of FCF growth.

3. Trading at a cheap valuation relative to GAAP earnings and normalized FCF.

4. Niche leader in its category.

Idea Generation, Portfolio Management/Construction, & Diversification

Tim’s idea generation process is so different from mine. He has a predetermined list of ~3,000 companies to choose from. I know that sounds like a lot. But there are 54,000+ stocks globally.

While part of me hates that idea, another part of me loves it. I struggle with the Paradox of Choice. Having the ability to invest in 54,000 different companies sounds like freedom. But it’s paralyzing. It’s one of the reasons I’ve switched to the RS Inflection/Composite monitors: I can focus on just a few industries.

Tim further narrows that list by selecting profitable companies with a history of growing FCF and GAAP earnings.

Let’s talk position sizing and portfolio construction. According to Tim (emphasis added):

“Full positions are historically 4%, though they may go up to 5% in regular portfolios for new money or existing value in extreme situations, and higher in concentrated specialty portfolios.”

This means Tim has a portfolio of ~20-25 stocks, with the majority of the portfolio weighted in the top 5-10% companies. Remember, Tim only wants to invest in niche leaders, which naturally reduces the number of companies you can own (emphasis added):

“We focus on the ‘best of the best’ and maintain great diversification by seeking niche leaders, which naturally limits the number of companies in any one category.”

Alright, let’s get to the ideas.

Idea 1: Lifevantage Corporation (LFVN)

• Market Cap: $78M

• Enterprise Value: $65M

• Normalized FCF: ~$10M

• P/E (NTM): 5.5x

• EV/Sales (NTM): 0.3x

• Latest Investor Deck: December 2025

What does the company do: LFVN engages in the identification, research, development, formulation, and sale of advanced nutrigenomic activators, dietary supplements, nootropics, weight management products, pre- and probiotics, and skin and hair care products. Think Herbalife (HLF), but for antioxidants, gut peptides, collagen-based products, and GLP-1s.

The Bull Thesis: LFVN produces immense cash, is debt-free, and trading at a single-digit P/E on GAAP earnings. The company has initiated and annually raised a dividend, and is buying back stock after funding internal growth and paying off all debt.

The Bear Thesis: Lingering concerns about the rise of strong substitute products like diabetes drugs approved for weight loss, and the possibility of mistaken identity with volatile stocks like LifeMD (LFMD).

The Rebuttal To The Bear Thesis: LFVN is more focused on overall health, including gut health and metabolism, areas that the new drugs may not necessarily address. The company is expected to increase cash flow and earnings growth through new product introductions, geographic expansion, and a recent acquisition that added both a product and a sales force.

The Short Interest Kicker: LFVN has a 19% short interest as of this writing. This caught my attention. Why would a company, which generates $10M+ in FCF/year with no long-term debt and a history of shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks), have that high a short interest?

Usually, you’d see a few short reports on a company with that high a short interest. But nothing on VIC or Seeking Alpha (see below).

I even tried Googling “Lifeadvantage short report” and found nothing.

My explanation for the short interest is that LFVN operates a “multi-level marketing” business model (again, like HLF). Most investors hate these businesses for the obvious reason: bad optics.

And maybe they’re short because GLP-1s will destroy LFVN’s business and products over time. But I don’t know. The company recently released a GLP-1 product to “naturally increase GLP-1 by an average of 200% as it balances hunger hormones—no injections or prescriptions required.”

The company is also entering the $32B gut peptide market, which different corners of “Health Twitter” have called “Vibe coding for your body.”

There are challenges:

• Top-line revenue has been stagnant since 2019.

• Gross margins have declined from 83% to 80% (still excellent).

• SG&A remains 75% of revenue (part of the MLM model).

For example, why does HLF have 10% EBITDA margins when LFVN has 5%? What is HLF doing with their MLM that LFVN isn’t (or can’t?)? Is there an opportunity to expand EBITDA margins? Or is that a byproduct of a worse business model and product category?

Let’s head to the chart.

The stock trades towards the lower range of its twenty-year base, and the DSS Bressert Signal is below the red (oversold) line. Zooming in on the weekly chart, the stock bounced off two-year support with a confirmed Bressert Buy Signal (see below).

Idea 2: Acco Brands Corporation (ACCO)

• Market Cap: $360M

• Enterprise Value: $1.24B

• Normalized FCF: ~$133M

• P/E (NTM): 3.8x

• EV/Sales (NTM): 0.2x

• P/B (LTM): 0.6x

• Latest Investor Deck: October 2025

What does the company do: ACCO designs, manufactures, and markets consumer, school, technology, and office products in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Europe, the Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, and Asia.

The Bull Thesis: ACCO underwent a multi-year reorganization under new management to shift from low-margin to value-added products, navigating temporarily reduced earnings during the process. The thesis includes an expected sales boost from a computer refresh cycle and the launch of Nintendo Switch 2 accessories, which should improve earnings in the fourth quarter.

The Bear Thesis (as I see it):

• Consistent revenue decline: Three straight years of declining revenue.

• EBITDA margin compression: From 15% to 10%

• Secular headwinds: Mature and declining end markets with pressure from hybrid/fully-online programs (reducing brand dependency with school relationships).

• Commoditized products: Do you really care what brand of stapler you buy?

At its current price, the market thinks ACCO will eventually declare bankruptcy (0.2x sales and 0.6x book). That makes sense on the surface … $360M market cap with $1.24B in EV ($880M in net debt).

However, as Tim explained (emphasis added):

“The debt is down from 2021. The market also doesn’t appreciate ACCO’s ability to easily refinance and has no maturities until 2029. The company is focused on debt paydown but has also used cash for share buybacks, which reduced dividend expenses, and currently offers an 8% dividend yield.”

Despite its significant net debt, ACCO has consistently returned cash to shareholders. Since 2018, the company has paid cumulative dividends of ~$208M and repurchased $233M in stock.

Let’s head to the tape.

We have a potential Bressert Buy Signal on this month’s bar, in a descending wedge pattern at long-term support.

You can also zoom into the daily chart and find a textbook rectangle reversal pattern (see below).

I’m Fishing In The Right Ponds

I like both setups, but prefer LFVN because it has no debt and operates in an industry that a) I like more and b) has more secular growth potential.

The other great thing about these ideas is that my screeners already found them. For example, LFVN was in my “Stupid Cheap” and “The Worst of The Worst” screeners as of 01/03. And ACCO fit the “Left For Dead” and “Cheap Vs. Own History” screeners.

I’m fishing in the right ponds and filtering for the right companies based on Tim’s (and the Trifecta Lens Mean Reversion) strategy. That’s encouraging.

I hope you enjoyed these Podcast Notes. Excited to share more of them with you this year.

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

People say they want to make money in the stock market. But in reality, it’s far more complicated. Humans crave action. Whether it’s running from a big cat in the African Sahara or buying that hot new stock your gym buddy can’t stop mentioning. In our brains: action = good, inaction = bad.

So much so that we’d rather harm ourselves than sit alone with our thoughts. Read that sentence again.

It’s easy to see how we (investors) harm ourselves to compound investment capital over the long term.

Yet, there are countless examples of great investors choosing to do nothing. Their ability to do nothing hangs on three principles:

1. Set The Highest Bar For New Ideas

2. Preoccupy Yourself with Other Work

3. Bet Only On The Highest Asymmetric Ideas

Look around.

The entire investment world thrives on activity and commotion. Zero-commission trading turns investing into a sport. Ill-chosen LPs want decisions to justify management fees.

The best investors are the ones who have an unnatural ability to choose inactivity. As crazy as it sounds, boredom is an investor’s last remaining competitive advantage.

People Choose Physical Pain Over Boredom

Humans are fascinating creatures. We can think deeply about concepts beyond our own experiences. We can paint alternate pictures of reality and the future, engage in probabilistic scenario analysis, and recall memories with ease. The scientific word for this phenomenon is “default mode processing.”

But in 2014, social psychologist Timothy Wilson posed two questions:

1. Do people choose to put themselves in default mode by disengaging from the external world?

2. When they are in this mode, is it a pleasing experience?

To answer these questions, Wilson conducted a series of 10 experiments. Participants ranged from college students to the elderly (77+). In the first study, the participants did a 6-15 minute “thinking session.” No phones, no external stimulus. Alone with their thoughts.

The first study revealed that 58% of participants found it difficult to concentrate. 89% said their mind wandered during the 6-15 minute session. And ~50% of participants said they didn’t enjoy the experience.

Let’s focus on the tenth (and last) study. In the tenth study, Wilson introduced an optional negative stimulation. In other words, participants had two choices:

1. Sit alone with their thoughts.

2. Hurt themselves via electric shock

Here’s the exciting part. Wilson gave each participant $5 and asked them to gauge how much they would pay to receive the electric stimulus after experimenting.

The results were incredible (emphasis mine):

“Many participants elected to receive negative stimulation over no stimulation—especially men: 67% of men (12 of 18) gave themselves at least one shock during the thinking period [range = 0 to 4 shocks, mean (M) = 1.47, SD = 1.46, not including one outlier who administered 190 shocks to himself], compared to 25% of women (6 of 24; range = 0 to 9 shocks, M = 1.00, SD = 2.32). Note that these results only include participants who had reported that they would pay to avoid being shocked again.”

Read that last sentence again. The results were from those who would pay to avoid being shocked. Imagine the percentage if the study included those who would pay to get shocked.

Wilson couldn’t hide his amazement at his findings (emphasis mine):

“But what is striking is that simply being alone with their thoughts for 15 min was so aversive that it drove many participants to self-administer an electric shock that they had earlier said they would pay to avoid.”

The majority would rather hurt themselves than sit in boredom with their thoughts.

But why?

Wilson first hypothesized that time alone with one’s thoughts led to periods of negative self-reflection. Yet, previous studies rebuked that claim. Another thesis is that people hate being both the “script-writer” and “experiencer” of thoughts. In other words, without external stimuli, humans do two things:

• “Write” an alternative reality in their minds.

• Experience that written alternative reality in their minds

Even when controlling for these written experiences, the researchers found no improvement in enjoyment.

It’s no wonder people spend hours meditating to control their minds and have peace within boredom. Failure to do so could lead to physical harm.

Wilson ends the paper with an exasperated conclusion (emphasis mine):

“Without such training, people prefer doing to thinking, even if what they are doing is so unpleasant that they would normally pay to avoid it. The untutored mind does not like to be alone with itself.”

How We Hurt Ourselves In Markets

The stock market is a consortium of human psychology played out five days a week from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM. Millions of individuals make decisions each day. Constant decisions mean the market ebbs and flows with people choosing activity over inactivity even if that activity hurts.

Remember, we know people would instead choose pain over boredom & solitude with their thoughts. What does this look like in financial markets?

Let’s review Ed Seykota’s quote from the beginning of the essay (emphasis mine):

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

Before learning about Wilson’s experiment, Seykota’s quote makes little sense. But think about it. Replace “market” with Wilson’s “thinking sessions” and replace “lose” with “hurt.”

It makes perfect sense. After all, we’re not supposed to find great ideas every day or month. Heck, uncovering a great idea once a quarter is a challenge! So that middle part — the gap between your last great idea and a new one — is where danger lives.

Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest investors to ever live, opined a similar philosophy (emphasis mine):

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

In markets, we hurt ourselves by acting when we should sit tight. Again, great ideas don’t appear often. When they do, we should buy as much as we can and sit on it. Then, do nothing.

Doing nothing is akin to Wilson’s students sitting in a room and not shocking themselves with painful stimuli. The majority of us just can’t do it, whether it be boredom or negative self-reflection tendencies!

Here are some ways we self-inflict painful shocks in our portfolio:

• Selling a stock after a drawdown on no fundamental news

• Focusing only on valuation metrics

• Averaging down on losers

• Poor position sizing

• Overemphasis on quarterly results

• “Resulting” past performance/decisions

• Assume infallibility

Like most people alone with their thoughts, most investors hurt themselves on a routine basis. Yet the best investors don’t. They’re the same people who can sit alone in a room with their thoughts — and somehow not harm themselves or become bored.

How do they do it? What are their secrets? Let’s find out.

The Best Investors Make The Fewest Decisions

A handful of investors can sit in a room and not hurt themselves. We know their names—Buffett, Munger, Pabrai, Nick Sleep, etc. You’ve read their annual letters and books. You’ve watched their YouTube videos. These are our “unnatural” investors.

Here are a few famous quotes from these unnaturals:

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

“I think the record shows the advantage of a peculiar mindset – not seeking action for its own sake, but instead combining extreme patience with extreme decisiveness.” – Charlie Munger

“The single most important skill for being a good investor is to be very content with not doing anything for extended periods, and that’s perfectly fine.” – Mohnish Pabrai

“Any superiority an investment process may have will only emerge with time, so patience is important.” – Nicholas Sleep

How can these investors sit, do nothing, and not hurt themselves? Said another way — how can they do the unnatural?

There are three things the best investors do to avoid the pain of boredom.

Rule 1: Set the Highest Bar Possible For New Ideas

First, they set the highest bar possible for their portfolio. A high bar makes it almost impossible to add another stock to the book because the ones they have are better. When faced with a decision to buy a new company or buy what they own — they buy more of what they own.

Here’s a great heuristic to gauge where you’ve set your portfolio hurdle. The higher your frequency of “great” ideas, the lower your portfolio hurdle and boredom. Even if you have a global mandate and can fish anywhere, always raise the hurdle rate to reduce the amount of “great” ideas you find. They should be few and far between.

Rule 2: Preoccupy Yourself With Other Work & Nix Boredom in the Bud

Second, unnaturals preoccupy themselves with other work like reading and learning about companies. This second step only works if you do the first one. A low bar for portfolio entry reduces your ability to deeply study new businesses and ideas because you’re mesmerized by the latest shiny object.

A high hurdle allows you to read hundreds of annual reports, investor presentations, and earnings transcripts without feeling like you need to add the idea to your portfolio. Moreover, the deeper you understand a business, the more you realize you don’t need to buy the stock right then and there, which brings us to our third characteristic of “unnatural” investors.

Rule 3: Bet Only On The Highest Asymmetric Opportunities Available

My biggest struggle is the feeling I’ll miss out on a stock’s returns if I don’t buy “today.” The best investors don’t share this struggle. The “unnaturals” know that it doesn’t matter if an idea is genuinely great if they purchase today or tomorrow. Heck, they swing such big asset pools it can take weeks to build a full position.

Such quiet confidence is a function of the asymmetry of the investment idea.

Let’s use a simple example. Say we’re studying two companies: ABC and XYZ. Both trade at $10/share (no, they’re not SPACs). Over time, we conclude that ABC is worth ~$15/share and XYZ $25/share.

Which stock is the better value? It isn’t a trick question: XYZ.

Yet it pains me to think about the hours I’ve spent obsessing over the ABC stocks in favor of the XYZ companies. All for the sake of activity.

“Unnatural” investors only look for the highest asymmetric payoffs possible. Ideas that can return $5 or $10 for every $1 risked. By doing this, they eliminate the need to buy within dollars and cents of a specified entry price.

The “Unnaturals” Three-Legged Stool

I’m stealing from Chuck Akre here, but think of each rule as a leg in a three-legged stool. You need all three to create a working seat.

You can’t only invest in the highest asymmetric opportunities if you have a low hurdle bar in your portfolio. And you can’t preoccupy yourself with reading, learning, and profoundly studying businesses if you’re betting on seventy-cent dollars.

Now I know why Akre called it a “stool.” You’re supposed to sit and, well, do nothing!

The Struggle (of Overactivity) is Real

Here’s how my current investment process looks:

“Ehh,” “ahh,” “maybe,” “kinda,” “no,” “no,” “I can see it”, …

Here’s how I want it to look:

“No,” “no,” “no,” “no,” “no,” “no,” “no,” “HELL YES,” “no,” “no,” “no” …

Better outcomes occur when you say “no” more and wait for the “HELL YES” ideas.

Saying “no” takes practice. It takes patience. It takes an unnatural ability to sit in a room alone for fifteen minutes and not hurt yourself. The best investors aren’t the best because they have a differentiated method of finding new (and better) ideas. They’re the best because they can do what so many of us can’t: sit with their thoughts and be okay.

As Charlie Munger says, “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

The best investors show up to the market, sit down, and don’t shock themselves. They like the boredom because they know it’s the boredom that precedes the next best idea. Do yourself a favor, stay bored.

Brandon here.

At the end of each month, I present the top five performing Industry Thematics based on RS Composite and RS Inflection Scores. Then, I share the best charts / actionable setups across the top three themes for collective research.

The goal is simple. I want to say:

1. Here are the strongest thematics over the past year, and here are the best/most actionable setups within those thematics (RS Composite).

2. Here are the strongest thematics over the past 1-3 months; maybe they’ll become the next Relative Strength leaders, and here are the best setups within those thematics (RS Inflection).

This week, we review my November RS Composite report, which highlighted the most actionable setups within the Top Three leading Composite Thematics (i.e., thematic leaders over the past year).

We release Composite & Reflection Reports every month so Collective members know:

1. What thematics have outperformed the market over the longer-term (1YR+)

2. What thematics are inflecting now that could become the next Market Leaders (1-3M+)

I hope you enjoy this report. If you’re interested in what we do at the Macro Ops Collective, consider joining below. We’d love to have you in there.

JOIN THE COLLECTIVE

Alright, let’s get after it.

Last month, our Top Five RS Composite Thematics were (1M returns):

1. Bitcoin Miners (WGMI): -18.58%

2. Procure Space ETF (UFO): -8.27%

3. Silver Junior Miners (SILJ): +15.80%

4. Copper Junior Miners (COPJ): +9.44%

5. Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ): +17.57%

You can read last month’s RS Composite Trifecta Lens Pulse here.

Before we dive into this month’s Composite Leaders, I want to recap our November and YTD performance. Here’s the data:

• November 2025: -10.86%

• YTD (as of December 03): +37.66%

I jinxed us by writing more than one sentence about our YTD performance and our wish for +50% by year-end. Let’s get straight into the Composite Leaders.

This Month’s RS Composite Leaders

Here are the top ten thematics based on RS Composite Scores. For reference, the RS Composite score ranks each thematic based on the weighted total return for the 3M, 6M, and 1YR periods.

Usually, I show just the top five thematics. Going forward, I’ll include the top ten because it allows us to spot potential future Composite leaders for further investment research.

We have two new entrants in the top five (a new turnover high since starting these reports):

• Silver Miners (SIL)

• Gold Miners (GDX)

SIL and GDX are back in the top five after a ~2-month hiatus. They replace the Space (UFO) and Copper Juniors (COPJ) thematics.

Bitcoin Miners (WGMI)

WGMI is down ~19% over the past month, a product of its Bull Volatile/Blended Bull Quiet market regime (see chart below).

Despite its 1M sell-off, WGMI rebounded, gaining ~28% over the past week after bitcoin found some price support (see BTC chart below).

My basket approach of HOOD, CIFR, RIOT, and HUT performed horribly, returning -10% on average over the past month.

That said, WGMI is still the RS Composite leader for a reason. It’s the strongest thematic over the past 3M, 6M, and 1YR. And there’s another reason why I like the Bitcoin/BTC miner theme … I’m seeing BTC pessimism on Twitter.

Check out the tweet below.

The post got 28K likes and 1.3M impressions. Granted, this is just one tweet. But you don’t see these tweets at market tops. You see them at a cyclical bottom in a secular bull trend.

In other words, you have the ingredients for a “Trifecta Lens” mean reversion trade where technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment align to profit from mean reversion (versus trend continuation or breakout).

I have three setups this week: two mean reversion trades and a breakout continuation.

Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): Mean Reversion

IBIT bounced off support at ~$49-50/share and is close to breaking out above its 20D MA (or midline).

You can buy at the market with a stop below the Nov. 17th weekly low ($46.63).

MARA Holdings (MARA): Mean Reversion

MARA has a similar chart and trade, but with more torque, as it’s a derivative of the underlying BTC asset.

I like a buy stop a tick above the Nov. 14th high ($12.75) and a sell stop a tick below the Nov. 21st low ($9.67).

TeraWulf Inc. (WULF)

WULF broke out of a 3YR cup-and-handle base in September and has been one of the strongest stocks in the BTC miners thematic/global universe.

There are three things I like about WULF:

1. The relative strength against the market and its peers (consistently in the 90th-95th percentile across multiple time frames).

2. Consolidating above the breakout point for its next move higher(?).

3. Relative strength against the underlying bitcoin commodity.

Check out the WULF/BTCUSD weekly chart below.

And then pair that with WULF’s daily chart (see below).

I’ve set alerts at the upper bound of WULF’s rectangle and will buy the breakout.

Silver Junior Miners (SILJ)

SILJ climbed one spot from October (3rd to 2nd) and continues its long-term bull trend. The ETF is up 50%, 98%, and 137% over the past three months, six months, and one year, respectively.

Leaders lead.

Here’s what I wrote in last month’s Long Pull: Composite Report (emphasis mine):

“SILJ is roughly unchanged over the past month, but up 85% over the past six months. Given the theme’s relative strength, my base case is that we retrace before the next leg higher. However, I’m open-minded to the idea that precious metals miners (SILJ, included) chop sideways for the next 6-12 months.

SILJ is down ~20% from its recent highs, back to the 50D, and trading in a Bull Quiet Regime. A breakout above the midline would signal risk-on in the PMs trade.”

We bought SILJ on 11/26 at an average cost of $24.57. Our October price action hypothesis played out; we followed our process and got long. However, I still anticipate sideways trading action over the coming weeks, which would be healthy for a sustained silver junior bull run.

Collective member @Flo asked a great question in the #trade-alerts-only channel about the SILJ buy (see below).

“Do you think its wise to buy resistance in silver and juniors?

imo pivotal moment here.

If we break out, there is a monster rally ahead and there will be chances to buy retests...

But chasing into last resistance on a holiday week? feels dangerous....

thoughts?”

And here was my response:

“To me, it’s breaking out of a failed topping pattern with a bias towards the prior highs. For example, look at the Nov 4-5th bars. Zero downside follow-through = bears trapped. It tested that level on Nov 21 and still couldn’t move lower.

Combine that with the Gold/Silver ratio making new lows (see chart attached) and it gave me more confidence in the trade.

At the end of the day, all we can do is make a bet where our expected outcome, based on the data we have, gives us a positive expectancy on the trade. We will be aggressive with stops to reduce risk if we are wrong on the price action. But for those reasons above, we loved the R/R here.”

Since SILJ is a repeat member of the top three thematics, I want to take this section to review the past month’s performance of last month’s picks.

First Mining Gold (FF.TSXV)

FF is a junior precious metals developer advancing two projects: Springpole and Duparquet. These are two of the largest undeveloped projects in Canada. The company has a market cap of ~CAD 400 M.

The Springpole asset alone has a 2021 PFS with a $1B NPV at $1,600/oz gold and $20/oz silver (that is not a typo). So the company trades at >50% discount to the NPV of one of its two assets.

FF is up 57% over the past month and now trades at a CAD 600M market cap (see daily chart below).

Here’s what I wrote about the stock last month (emphasis added):

“The stock is up 150% from its lows and forming a rectangle base against the 50D MA in a Bull Quiet regime. Another thing to note is that the price has held up against gold and silver’s retracement.”

I know I sound like a broken record in some of these reports, but this is the blueprint:

• Relative strength leader in its category

• Coiling in a consolidation/base for the next leg higher

• Stock is holding up well against underlying commodity price weakness

Even if you learn nothing else from these Long Pull RS Composite reports, I’ve done my job.

Falco Resources (FPC.V)

FPC is a $100M Abitibi-based gold/silver developer with its flagship Horne 5 Project. The mineral reserve is 80.9Mt at 2.24g/t gold. Initial estimates assume a 15-year mine life with 220Koz of annual gold production and a $ 761 M.

The stock is up ~10% in the past month, but importantly, broke out from its two-month trading range (see below).

However, this daily rectangle pattern is just a launching pattern for its 8YR inverse H&S base (see below).

Tech Charts founder Aksel Kibar often talks about “launching patterns” and how more minor breakouts lead to larger ones.

FPC.V lets you play the launch pattern game. Buy the daily breakout to get exposure, then wait for the inverse H&S breakout confirmation to add to the position.

Southern Silver Exploration (SSV.TSXV)

One more silver junior idea this month is SSV. I came across the stock after reading this drill result headline:

“Southern Silver Intersects 10.5 metres averaging 1,115g/t AgEq at Cerro Las Minitas Project in Durango, México”

According to the company’s website, the Cerro Las Minitas project has a preliminary economic assessment with an after-tax NPV5% of US$501M and an IRR of 21.2%.

The stock currently trades at a $200M market cap and is in the middle of a 13YR rectangle base (i.e., Ted Warren chart).

But don’t be fooled by the long base. SSV is one of the strongest performers in the market (see below).

This is what you want to see before a stock breaks its long-term base.

Gold Junior Miners (GDXJ)

GDXJ is up 42%, 69%, and 138% over the past 3M, 6M, and 1YR periods, respectively. It’s been a consistent member of the RS Composite and RS Inflection Top 10 list since I started this monthly report in July.

The most frustrating part is that I completely missed this move in the MO port. I aired my GDXJ annoyances in last week’s podcast with Kuppy, but it’s worth explaining here.

We’ve been bullish on PMs and the miners for the past two years. And instead of buying a large notional GDXJ position and chilling, I overtraded our single-stock junior miners. I lost the forest through the trees. I sold when I should’ve bought. I did more than I needed and got worse returns in the process (funny how that works).

This trade was one of the main reasons I adopted my new investment framework: one that emphasizes broad thematic ETF exposure as the first layer, and only then adds 1-3 single-name ideas for torque.

Look at the GDXJ weekly chart.

I see a strong uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, a brief sideways consolidation, and then another strong uptrend before settling into its current sideways consolidation.

It’s easy to look back with hindsight and say, “I should’ve just bought a lot of GDXJ, set my initial stop, and not look at it for a year.” But that’s kind of what I want to do going forward?

Remember, GDXJ (and PMs in general) never really left the top ten RS Composite ranking throughout the year. That’s important information, probably more important than what one weekly bar on a chart says.

The good news is that I have a plan to fix that going forward, which is why I’m so excited about next year’s trading.

Still, it sucks seeing a theme perform the way you thought it would only to capture a fraction of that correctly hypothesized move.

I’ll get off the soapbox.

Here are my thoughts on GDXJ. Like SILJ, I’d love to see GDXJ trade sideways for a few months before its next breakout. This would allow larger allocators time to rotate capital into the theme before the next leg higher (giving the breakout more juice).

You can see my Picasso-like drawing example below.

We have 5% notional positions in IDR and gold futures. I want to increase that exposure over time, and a retrace within the broader GDXJ bull trend would be a perfect spot to do so.

Be on the lookout for a trade alert to add either GDXJ, GDX, gold futures (or a combo!).

• Andean Precious Metals (APM)

• PGMs/Valterra Platinum (VALT)

APM is a 10-bagger since we first pitched it to the Collective at CAD 0.72/share. In other words, a $1,000 investment in APM would’ve paid for ~3 years of a Collective membership.

The same can be said for our PGM and Valterra Platinum (VALT) pitch. We pitched VALT (while reaffirming our bullish PGM thesis) on July 2024.

PGMs have ripped since then … platinum and palladium are up 107% and 66%, respectively. Even VALT is up 124% since that July 2024 Long Pull Report.

And those are just two of our calls over the past year. We also nailed the precious metals trade with silver more than doubling, and our basket of PM juniors returning 300, 400, and even 750%+ over the past year.

While the returns are nice, and things like APM feel like once-in-a-lifetime calls, it’s not what separates Macro Ops from other investment research communities. Everyone has ideas. Anyone can hand you a trout and say, “Here, you don’t need to learn how to fish, look what I’ve brought you.”

You’re reading this piece because you want to learn how to fish, or you want to learn how to fish better.

That’s why I love the Macro Ops Collective.

We use the Trifecta Lens Investment Framework to teach people how to catch big fish … tools and processes to find leading thematics, education and guidance on finding the best companies within those leading thematics, and world-class position sizing and risk/trade management tools to ensure you make the most from your asymmetric bet.

The Collective is the best trading community on the Internet, hands down. We have seasoned HF managers, professional full-time traders (prop and independent), real Market Wizards (yes, like from the books), and serially successful entrepreneurs. All with the same goal: to become the best, most profitable trader they can be, while having a great time along the way.

That’s why I’m excited to tell you that we’re opening up our Macro Ops Collective enrollment until the end of the year.

We’re having a solid year (+45%), catching a few significant themes, discovering a few stocks nobody had heard of, and avoiding any major mistakes.

If you’re interested in our Trifecta Lens Framework and trading philosophy or want to eliminate the guesswork of position sizing, risk management, and market noise, check us out.

Click below and sign up.

Join The Collective

We can’t wait to see you in there. Now, keep reading for a sneak peek into our process and reports.

Relative Strength Leaders: The Metals Complex

There are three parts to how we manage the “momentum” portion of our equity book:

1. Weekly screen for relative strength leaders in all our key thematic areas across 6M and 1YR time frames.

2. Develop a basket approach to portfolio construction and stock selection to express our key thematic areas.

3. Optimize the portfolio to have the highest weighting in the leading relative strength names within the leading key thematic areas.

With that in mind, I present the following Koyfin Scatter Plot.

We should own the metals in the upper right-hand corner of the chart above. That means:

• Platinum: NICU, SPPP, SLP, VALT

• Cobalt: None

• Palladium: NICU, SPPP, SLP, VALT

• Copper: NICU, ARG, EMO.V

• Gold: IDR, APM

• Silver: APM

I’m surprised to see cobalt in there … but that research is for another Long Pull :)

PGMs represent our largest position within our Metals Complex thematic, with 15% notional exposure. That is what we want – to have the most significant weighting in the things that are working the best.

These are charts you want to own, and I found the final PGM name to add to our basket: Valterra Platinum (VALT.LSE).

Valterra Platinum (VALT.LSE): The World’s Best PGM Producer

Valterra Platinum (VALT) is a newly independent PGM producer spun out of Anglo American in May 2025.

It is the world’s largest integrated platinum group metals (PGMs) miner, with operations concentrated in the Bushveld Complex of South Africa and the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe.

The company’s asset portfolio includes several long-life mining complexes (all 100%-owned) covering platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, osmium, and associated base metals (nickel, copper, cobalt).

Here’s the pitch: VALT is the world’s largest and lowest-cost PGM producer, with hundreds of years of mine life remaining from its 600 million ounces of reserve endowment. Assuming ~$1,800/oz for PGM prices, VALT would generate $2.6B in annual pre-tax cash flow at an $11B EV for a 23% FCF yield. It’s a world-class asset with unmatched reserve potential, trading like a distressed junior producer. The company pays out 40% of its cash in dividends.

VALT should command a mid-cycle EBITDA multiple of 7- 8x, putting fair value around $18B – $20B (nearly 100% upside).

VALT’s Prize Asset: The Mogalakwena Mine

The Mogalakwena mine is the most impressive mine I’ve researched. It’s the world’s largest open-pit PGM mine, located on the northern limb of the Bushveld Igneous Complex (see below).

Pictures don’t do it justice – this thing is MASSIVE.

Any American football fans out there? If you stood at one end of the Mogalakwena Mine, you could fit over 25,600 football fields side by side before you reached the other end. It’s 40x larger than NY’s Central Park and twice the size of Manhattan.

The mine has 86 years of reserves and 150+ years of resources remaining. It produces ~1Moz/year of 3-4g/t PGMs through a mix of mostly open pit and underground mining at ~$900 – $1,000/oz AISCs.

VALT generates nearly $900M in free cash flow from Mogalakwena alone.

One interesting fact about Mogalakwena is that it integrates lower-grade open-pit ore with higher-grade underground ore. Over time, this results in higher average grades while maintaining cost discipline through the open-pit scale economies.

The Amandelbult Complex

Amandelbult is an underground mining complex located on the western side of the Bushveld, comprising the Tumela and Dishaba mines. It’s higher-grade (5-6g/t) ore generates approximately $1,300/oz in revenue, making it one of the most profitable PGM mines in the world.

The complex has 46 years of reserves between Dishaba and Tumela, respectively, and another 75+ years of remaining resources.

The Mototolo–Der Brochen Complex

The Mototolo mine (acquired by VALT in 2018) and the adjacent Der Brochen project, located on the eastern side of the Bushveld, have been combined into a single complex to replenish and expand ore from Der Brochen while winding down Mototolo’s Lebowa and Borwa shafts (see below).

Mototolo is another massive mine with over 50 years of reserves and more than 95 years of resources through underground operations. There’s also an AISC benefit from switching to Der Brochen ore. VALT estimates that AISCs at Mototolo will fall from ~$992/oz to $875/oz as the company shifts more production to Der Brochen (via higher chrome credits and operational efficiencies).

The company also operates the Unki mine, its smallest asset, which produces ~250,000 ounces per year. Finally, like APM, the company purchases ore from third parties to refine at its wholly-owned processing facilities (that adds another 0.9Moz – 1Moz).

On a consolidated basis, VALT produces ~3.0 – 3.4Moz/year of PGMs (Platinum: 44%, Palladium: 32%, Other: 24%).

Let’s discuss valuation and future cash flows.

VALT’s Three-Year Outlook

Here’s my oversimplified 3YR model for VALT’s production and cash flow.

My 2025 PGM prices reflect today’s basket metals prices plus VALT’s split of metal production (see above). At current basket prices, VALT generates $2.75 billion in pre-tax cash flow (25% yield).

Should PGM prices stabilize at ~$2,000/oz, VALT would end 2027 with nearly $3.5B in pre-tax cash flow from expanded production at higher grades (remember they’re adding higher-grade underground ore to Mogalakwen). In other words, the stock trades at ~3x my estimate of 2027 EBIT.

As I mentioned above, VALT is a Tier-1 producer with world-class assets at the lowest end of the cost curve. Those assets should trade at around 7-8x mid-cycle earnings (comparable to prior-cycle valuations), giving us ~121% upside from today’s prices.

Look, I don’t think VALT is a “multi-bagger” in the same way I view NICU, IDR, or APM (which was back at $0.72/share). But you can make 2-3x your money and get paid to wait for the PGM cycle to play out (VALT pays 40% of cash flow in dividends or ~$1.2B per year using the above scenario).

VALT offers the lowest-risk torque to higher PGM prices, and it should be a staple in any investor’s PGM basket.

Just a final reminder that we’re opening up our Macro Ops Collective enrollment until the end of the year.

We’re up 45% but not satisfied; there’s so much room for improvement, and that’s the best part!

If you’re interested in our Trifecta Lens Framework and trading philosophy or want to eliminate the guesswork of position sizing, risk management, and market noise, check us out.

Click below and sign up.

Join The Collective

Your Value Operator,

Brandon